Weekend Surf Forecast 6 - 8 September, 2019

5 Sep 2019 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Issued Thursday, 5 September 2019

It looks like someone forgot to tell Huey that winter has ended. Wherever you look, there are seriously big or just plain cold and windblown conditions looming on the charts. The Eastern Seaboard sees a very dynamic and complex pattern unfolding from Friday through to early next week; setting up two big pulses of southerly swell – and while the first is looking bit, it looks like it will be dwarfed by the second, larger episode kicking in from Monday to Wednesday.

Further south, Victoria and South Australia wear the brunt of strong onshore winds, enduring for days at a stretch as a firm high pressure ridge interacts with a series of vigorous fronts sweeping across the region. That means mostly lay-days, interspersed with short-windows of opportunity along the more sheltered, east facing areas. Last but not least, the West Coast also sees a couple of days of onshore, wind-affected conditions offering up sub-par surfing options, before winds swing offshore on Sunday morning. That’s set to coincide with a strong rise in SW groundswell, making it a day worth setting some time aside for.

Swell abounds around the country this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Carlos Basualdo.

Swell abounds around the country this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Carlos Basualdo.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
The evolution of a deep mid-latitude low Bass Strait on Friday looms as a major source of southerly swell for the entire East Coast over the coming week. Prior to its onset we’ll see leftover SE swell flattening out on Saturday, ahead of a powerful spike in directional southerly groundswell on Sunday. However, even at this late stage, it’s still difficult to call the size this impending increase. It hinges on the precise alignment of a 40 to 60 knot westerly (WSW) fetch developing out of eastern Bass Strait on Saturday – and even at this late stage there’s some fine differences in the key models.

However it pans out, it’s looking both sizeable and powerful, with big variances in surf-heights resulting from a SSW deepwater swell-direction. On top of that, Sunday’s groundswell marks the first of a two-stage event; culminating in a second and much larger South swell peaking across the region later Monday through early Tuesday. The specifics surrounding both pulses will become clearer later on Friday.

Friday
Residual ESE swell mixing with slight NE windswell. Up to a slow 1 to 2ft at best across exposed breaks, tiny to virtually-flat elsewhere. WIND: Northerly, NNE 10 to 20 knots, freshening to 15 to 25 knots, then shifting Westerly at 20 to 30 knots in the late arvo/ evening.

Saturday
Scope for steep rising Southerly swell later in the day. Tiny near-flat, rising to a windy 2 to 3ft across southern exposures during the late afternoon/ evening. WIND: Westerly 20 to 30 knots, tending WSW 25 to 35 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Low confidence on size and timing of a powerful, directional Southerly groundswell. Inconsistent sets ranging from 4 to 6ft+ across south facing beaches, wrapping at 2 to 5ft along open beaches with size depending on exposure. Revisions likely. WIND: WSW 15 to 25 knots, tending SW during the day, then back to the West during the late afternoon.

A brief hiatus in wave activity precedes the arrival of a new southerly groundswell on Sunday, with a whole lot more brewing for Monday/ Tuesday. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Cartman.

A brief hiatus in wave activity precedes the arrival of a new southerly groundswell on Sunday, with a whole lot more brewing for Monday/ Tuesday. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Cartman.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
As the last of this week’s SE swell will gradually dwindles away over the next couple of days, we’ll be turning to our south-swell window for new surf-prospects. As discussed above, the development of a deep Tasman low holds latent potential for a large south-swell event; big enough to show some serious size both north and south of the border. This event gets underway with a steady building trend in directional south swell throughout Sunday – and initially this will clearly favour northern NSW coasts. It won’t be until early next week that we’ll see the bulk of it moving in across the region under strong SSW winds.

Friday
Residual SE swell under early offshore winds. Far northern NSW: Up to a slower 2ft exposed breaks, more like 1 to 2ft elsewhere and fading as local NE windswell picks up in the afternoon. WIND: WNW, NW 10 to 15 knots, tending NNW in the morning, then Northerly and freshening to 20 to 30 knots later.

Saturday
Mix of slight SSE swell and short-range NE windswell. Up to 1ft+ exposed coasts, virtually flat elsewhere. WIND: Westerly, WNW 15 to 20 knots, easing in the afternoon.

Sunday
Directional Southerly groundswell picks up. Far northern NSW: Speculatively 2 to 3ft+ south facing breaks early, picking up to 3 to 5ft during the day and up to 4 to 6ft later. Wrapping at 2 to 5ft elsewhere with size depending timing and exposure.  Southern QLD: Wrapping at a slow 2 to 3ft along exposed beaches, more like 1 to 2ft+ elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early WSW to SW 5 to 15 knots, tending to Easterly sea-breezes in the afternoon.


A calm weekend precedes the onset of something big out of the south early to mid next week. Photo: Uploaded to CW b MikeBJ.

A calm weekend precedes the onset of something big out of the south early to mid next week. Photo: Uploaded to CW b MikeBJ.

Victoria
Cold, blustery onshore conditions lend the focus to anything but surfing across Victoria this weekend. A deepening low pressure system sweeping across Bass Strait on Friday leads in a series of vigorous fronts that in totality will support gusty onshore winds across the state for days to come. That will leave the Surf Coast and other semi-sheltered regions as the only viable surfing options, with Saturday and Sunday both shaping up as the pick.

Friday
Easing WSW groundswell continues under westerly winds, shifting south during the day. Sets ranging from 3 to 4ft along exposed beaches in the morning, dropping to 2 to 4ft in the arvo. Wrapping at an inconsistent 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs, smaller, and grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light NW to NE, shifting West, then SW to SSW 15 to 25 knots, up to 25 to 35 knots in the evening.

Saturday
Short range SW swell picks up under fresh onshore winds. Up to a windblown 3 to 4ft+ along exposed beaches, bumping up during the afternoon. Wrapping at about 2 to 3ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs, smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: WSW to SW 20 to 30 knots, easing during the afternoon.

Sunday
SW swell picks up into the 3 to 5ft+ along exposed beaches, wrapping at slow 3 to 4ft along the Surf Coast reefs, picking up into the afternoon. WIND: NW 15 to 20 knots, tending Westerly, WSW and freshening to 25 to 35 knots in the afternoon

The Surf Coast will be one of the few region's offering up a rideable wave across the state this weekend. Photo: Judy Scanlon.

The Surf Coast will be one of the few region's offering up a rideable wave across the state this weekend. Photo: Judy Scanlon.

Western Australia
There isn’t a whole lot to froth over on the short-term forecast – at least until Sunday morning. While Friday morning should offer up a glimmer of good conditions under an early NE bias in coastal winds, this window will quickly close as winds rotate North to NW during the day. That looks like leading in a full day of light to moderate onshore conditions throughout Saturday – the upside of which is lighter WSW winds opening up junky, but still manageable conditions all day. It won’t be until Sunday that winds look like swinging back to the east – just in time for the arrival of a new, long-period SW groundswell that’s likely to transform conditions throughout the afternoon.

Friday
SW swell eases under early cross-offshore winds. South West: Clean 3 to 4ft sets across exposed breaks, fading to a windblown 2 to 3ft+ in the afternoon. Perth/Mandurah: Around 0.5ft. WIND: Light NE inshore early, tending NNE to North in the morning, then NW to WNW 10 to 15 knots in the arvo.

Saturday
New SW groundswell arrives under renewed onshore winds, fading in the afternoon. Southwest: Ranging from 4 to 5ft+ along exposed coasts, more like 3 to 5ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Up to 1 to 2ft. WIND: WNW 5 to 10 knots, tending SW to SSW up to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.

Sunday
Easing SW swell reinforced by new, long-period SW groundswell under early east winds. Southwest: Clean 3 to 4ft+ across exposed coasts, speculatively rebuilding towards 4 to 6ft+ during the day and up to 6 to 8ft+ in the late arvo/ evening. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Around 1ft+, rising later. WIND: Easterly around 10 knots, tending light and variable before shifting light SW to SSW during the afternoon.

The arrival of a new SW groundswell on Sunday coincides with light easterly winds. Photo: Dan Wyer.

The arrival of a new SW groundswell on Sunday coincides with light easterly winds. Photo: Dan Wyer.

South Australia
A cut-off low moving within close range of the coast on Thursday night leads in all manner of chaos across the region on Friday – not to mention persistent onshore winds across the state all weekend. A vigorous front moving through early on Friday will see south-westerlies hitting 30 to 40 knots across the South Coast during the morning, before scaling back to a still robust 15 to 25 knots out of the WSW/SW throughout Saturday and Sunday. That leaves very little in the way of surfing options, with lighter inshore westerlies on Sunday morning likely to offer the best of a very ordinary bunch.

Friday
Steep rising, short-range SW swell wrapping under freshening onshore winds. South Coast: 4 to 6ft+ around Waits and Parsons, building during the day. Wrapping at a stormy 2 to 4ft from Middleton to Goolwa, picking up to 3 to 5ft. Mid Coast: Around 2ft. WIND: WSW 20 to 35 knots early, turning SW 25 to 40 knots during the day, easing later.

Saturday
Settling SSW swell fades under moderating onshore winds. South Coast: Ranging from 3 to 5ft+ at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at about 2 to 4ft at Middleton to Goolwa, smaller later. Mid Coast: WSW swell up to 1ft. WIND: WSW to SW 15 to 25 knots, easing during the afternoon.

Sunday
Scope for new SW groundswell under moderate onshore winds. South Coast: Up to 3 to 5ft+ at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at junky 2 to 4ft around Middleton, picking up in the afternoon. Mid Coast: Up to 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: Westerly 15 to 25 knots, tending SW to SSW and freshening in the afternoon.

Mostly windblown conditions will keep a lid on quality surf across SA this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by mg7.

Mostly windblown conditions will keep a lid on quality surf across SA this weekend. Photo: Uploaded to CW by mg7.


Tags: Weekend Surf Forecast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

blog comments powered by Disqus
Features
Weekend Surf Forecast 20 - 22 September, 2019

Weekend Surf Forecast 20 - 22 September, 2019

There's swell inbound from all angles this weekend.

19 Sep 2019
The O'RIGINALS, Beau Cram – Chippie and Surfer

The O'RIGINALS, Beau Cram – Chippie and Surfer

His J-Bay lines are serious fun.

3 17 Sep 2019
Recent
The O'RIGINALS, Beau Cram – Chippie and Surfer

The O'RIGINALS, Beau Cram – Chippie and Surfer

3 17 Sep 2019
Perfect Point Barrels and Punchy Beachies – Creed and Crew Shred Fun Northern NSW

Perfect Point Barrels and Punchy Beachies – Creed and Crew Shred Fun Northern NSW

12 Sep 2019
Nick Carroll: A Shot in the Arm for the QS

Nick Carroll: A Shot in the Arm for the QS

4 10 Sep 2019
Nias: "It Is a Complete Disaster"

Nias: "It Is a Complete Disaster"

16 22 Aug 2019
Latest News

The O'RIGINALS, Beau Cram – Chippie and Surfer

His J-Bay lines are serious fun.

Nick Carroll: A Shot in the Arm for the QS

Everyone’s a winner with the Challenger Series!!

Nias: "It Is a Complete Disaster"

Construction continues at Lagundri Bay; local surfers up in arms

Go to Top