South Coast WA Surf Forecasts

1

Warning

Coastal Wind Warning 1

Katie Jackson

Katie Jackson 's Regional Outlook

Updated 20 Oct 2020 @ 4:15 PM (local)
info

The surf heights forecasted for South Coast WA

Please consider your local spots specific orientation to the coast and any local idiosyncrasies that may also effect the swell in relation to this regional forecast.

  • Swell analysis

    Short-Term Analysis (Friday, 23 Oct) 
    Plenty of opportunities popping up over the course of next week so get ready for it. Clean mornings and incoming mid range SW groundswells. It’s the fun spring combo we wait for…

    A heat trough broadens over the northeast of the state and we see an increasing and strong ESE wind rotation around the southern end of this system. A new SW swell pulse arrived Monday under the strengthening offshore winds and held good Tuesday. This swell will be reinforced with a secondary larger SW groundswell filling in Wednesday before surf eases gradually into the end of the week.

    Conditions continue a pattern of SE wind, due to the upper level heat trough over the north of the state that deepens into surface low over the Goldfields. As the heat trough migrates east, it makes way for a high pressure system to edge into WA from the southwest through the end of the week. This will stream in warm weather as the high expands out over the Indian Ocean and the low resides over the interior of the continent. Good mornings are the result in a SE wind gradient under this scenario and clean conditions aide the low tide mornings on the coast. Afternoon winds can be expected to swing S to SW due to daytime heating and enhance seabreezes under generally clear skies. Check to see how strong the southerly shift occurs for your region as we may see some afternoon alongshore southerly drift cross up some additional wind bump on exposed areas, while giving small but clean opportunities along south protected breaks.

    A strong SW fetch fuels a deepwater SW swell pulse and this looks to arrive under some excellent morning conditions midweek. The swell formed at a distance under a 40 knot wind fetch near Kergulean Islands last Saturday. This energy initially greeted us as a 2m bump up in wave heights on the buoys Monday afternoon and then held good into early Tuesday. We should see a stronger secondary SW groundswell pulse arrive tonight and that will carry on larger surf Wednesday. Expect the overlapping long period SW groundswell to reinforcing wave heights midweek and we should see more sets arriving as the two swells overlap and combine sets for more consistency. A new boost of head high surf will appear in Metro areas Wednesday, with a tendancy towards more consistent overhead range waves along the open southwest breaks. Open areas may see breezy winds rotate around from the south through midday, which may possibly add some alongshore drift, especially Wednesday, but none the less, we can expect good AM conditions to greet the region with sizeable waves throughout the week.

    Long-Term Analysis (Sat, 24 Oct and beyond)

     

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